When A level results are opened on Thursday this week, some young people will find that they have not received the grades required to study at their first-choice university. Grade inflation, stretched university resources and a higher number of deferred entries caused by the Covid 19 pandemic have conspired to reduce the options available to school leavers this year.
A level grades from the last two years were at an all-time high. Why was that? Public exams were cancelled as a result of the pandemic and so for two years in succession, schools, universities and the government had to figure out alternative ways to grade school leavers. The resulting methods (involving teachers’ own assessments, occasionally algorithms, and a mishmash of school-set tests and exams) resulted in unusually good outcomes. In 2020, 38.5% grades received were A*s or As and in 2021, the figure was 44.8%. To put this in context, in 2019, the year before covid, only 25.2% of grades received were A*s or As.
The government has decided that this ‘grade inflation’ must now be reversed so that by 2023, we’re back to the levels and distribution of grades seen before the pandemic. In order to avoid grades falling off a cliff edge, 2022’s results are to stand as a midway point; worse than 2021 but still more generous than 2019. The required shift in grade boundaries means that the numbers of A*s and As being awarded this year will be around 35% - significantly lower than last year.
That on its own might not be enough to concern this year’s cohort of university applicants but add to the mix a reduction in university places due to stretched resources and an unprecedented number of entries deferred from 2021, and it’s clear that more young people than usual are going to have to rethink their plans.
What can you do if you miss out on your university offer? The Good Schools Guide’s editor-in-chief, Ralph Lucas, suggests looking at alternatives. “There are many and varied routes to a successful career, and although not achieving the grades required by your first-choice university can seem like a devastating blow on results day, the class of 2022 has the opportunity to turn the situation to their advantage.”
More university applicants than usual will find themselves in this position and uncertainty over the coming weeks will be common. Reapplying to university in 2023 will likely be a popular option but Lord Lucas points towards positives which can be found away from formal education. “Here is a chance to follow a high-risk passion – make a movie, get stuck into the music business, create a product and sell it online - if it does not work out, the university option is not going to vanish. Tony Blair spent a year as a music promoter before returning to full-time education and it didn’t appear to hold him back! And if your A levels are not good enough or in the wrong subjects, a foundation degree could get you to where you want to be.
“An enforced break in full-time education can also provide a chance to develop transferable skills while earning some money. A customer-facing job where you are part of a team will stand you in very good stead whenever you come to launch your real career – you will have all sorts of experience that those who have only known academia will not. I remember one young man who had spent his gap year doing the accounting for a tin mine in South America: straight to the top of the employment queue when he left university. Some of the volunteering gap years are also really excellent although they can be costly. Working hard, wherever you do it, certainly won’t hurt when it comes to university, and nor will having some money in the bank. In the end, having spent some time out in the world, you may well have a much clearer idea of what degree you want and why.”
As 2022’s A level cohort will receive comparatively lower grades than in recent years, The Good Schools Guide recommends the following on results day:
Photo credit: Magdalen College School, Oxford
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